APRIL 2022 NEWSLETTER

Happy April Fools Day & Happy Birthday to Pat! 🙂

The Best Week To List Your House Is Just Around the Corner

Are you thinking about selling your house? If so, you may want to make it a priority to start the process soon. The sweet spot for sellers is just around the corner. In a recent study, experts analyzed housing market trends by looking at data from the past several years (excluding 2020, since it was an atypical year). When applied to the current market, experts determined the ideal week to list a house this year. The research says: The week of April 10-16 is expected to have the ideal balance of housing market conditions that favor home sellers, more so than any other week in the year.”

  • You should see more buyer activity
  • Your house is expected to sell quickly
  • Hour house will be in the spotlight

Full article here.

Where are Mortgage Rates Going From Here?

With both mortgage rates and home values expected to increase throughout the year, it would be better to buy sooner rather than later if you’re able. That’s because it’ll cost you more the longer you wait. But, there is a possible silver lining to buying a home right now. While you’ll be paying a higher price and a higher mortgage rate than you would have last year, rising prices do have a long-term benefit once you buy.

If you purchase a home today valued at $400,000 and put 10% down, you would be taking out a $360,000 mortgage. According to mortgagecalculator.net, at a 4.42% fixed mortgage rate, your mortgage payment would be $1,807 a month (this does not include insurance, taxes, and other fees because those vary by location).

Now, let’s put that mortgage payment into a new perspective based on the substantial growth in equity that comes with the escalation in home prices. Every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts about their expectations for future home prices in the United States. Last week, Pulsenomics released their latest Home Price Expectation Survey. The survey reveals that the average of the experts’ forecasts calls for a 9% increase in home values in 2022.

Based on those projections, a $400,000 house you buy today could be valued at $436,000 by this time next year. If you break that down, that means the equity in your home would increase by $3,000 a month over that period. That’s greater than the estimated monthly payment above. Granted, the increase in your net worth is tied to the home, but it is one way to put the home price appreciation to use in a way that benefits you.

Bottom Line

Paying a higher price for a home and a higher mortgage rate can be a difficult pill to swallow. However, waiting will just cost you more. If you’re ready, willing, and able to buy a home, now will be a better time than a year, or even six months from now. Let’s connect to begin the process today.

I’m here to help!

All my best, 

Shawna

MARCH 2022 NEWSLETTER

Happy March! 

What an exciting month with March Madness, SPRING, Daylight Savings, and of course St. Patrick’s Day. 😉

Lately there’s lots of talk about interest rates, supply and demand, and having to offer over ask price to secure a home. Yes, it can be overwhelming for both buyers and sellers but that’s why I’m here! I’m a huge advocate of investing in real estate and I’d like share the below:

Real Estate has been voted the best investment eight years in a row. As a long term investment, real estate has been on a winning streak for the past 8 years, consistently gaining traction as the best long term investment. See the graph below.

Even when inflation is rising like it is today, real estate is a great investment. Rising inflation means prices are increasing across the board. That includes goods, services, housing costs, and more. But when you purchase your home, you lock in your monthly housing payments, effectively shielding yourself from increasing housing payments.

James Royal, Senior Wealth Management Reporter at Bankrate, explains it like this: “A fixed rate mortgage allows you to maintain the biggest portion of housing expenses at the same payment. Sure, property taxes will rise and other expenses may creep up, but your monthly housing payment remains the same.”

If you’re a renter, you don’t have that same benefit, and you aren’t protected from increases in your housing costs, especially rising rents.

As a homeowner, your house is an asset that typically increases in value over time, even during inflation. That‘s because, as prices rise, the value of your home does, too. Tangible assets like real estate get more valuable over time, which makes buying a home a good way to spend your money during inflationary times. 

Real Estate Voted the Best Investment Eight Years in a Row | MyKCM

If you know someone who is still renting, I’d love an introduction to educate him/her on the financial perks of investing in real estate NOW with today’s rates. It’s an excellent long term investment that will provide real returns. As a renter, you build your landlord’s wealth and face rising costs. As a homeowner, you build your own net worth and lock in your monthly payments for the length of your loan. 

The below chart demonstrates a purchase price staying the same but interest rates rising. The monthly payment is only affected by about $100/mo.

On a personal note, I’m certainly feeling the inflation in terms of rising gas prices and how much I DRIVE my kids around to all their activities. Jack has started track practice every day after school and he has a part time job bussing tables at Jockamo Pizza on Fort Benjamin Harrison (stop in and say hi). He’s doing amazing maintaining straight A’s as an honor student and still finds time to hang out with friends.

Kelly is rocking it on her Munciana club volleyball 13yr team. She is also maintaining straight A’s and her social life is off the chain. We drive A LOT!  Tee hee. I don’t mind really – I know that I’ll miss these times being so busy with the kids. Gas is a small price to pay for these memories 😉

Thank you for your support! Hope to talk with you soon!

Best,

Shawna

FEBRUARY 2022 NEWSLETTER

I hope you are warm and safe today! I’m working from home while my kids, Jack and Kelly, virtually learn. I’m most likely in the same situation as many families with school aged children today. 🙂

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading

Each Thursday, Freddie Mac releases its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. According to the latest survey, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has risen from 3.22% at the start of the year to 3.55% as of last week. This is important to note because any increase in mortgage rates changes what a purchaser can afford. To give you an idea of how rising mortgage rates impact your purchasing power, see the table below:

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading | MyKCM

How Can You Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Headed?

A great indicator of where they may head is by looking at the 50-year history of the 10-year treasury yield, and then following its path. Understanding the mechanics of the treasury isn’t as important as knowing that there’s a correlation between how it moves and how mortgage rates follow. Here’s a graph showing that relationship over the last 50 years:

The Top Indicator if You Want To Know Where Mortgage Rates Are Heading | MyKCM

This correlation has continued into the new year. The treasury yield has started to climb, and that’s driven rates up. As of last Thursday, the treasury yield was 1.81%. That’s 1.74% below the mortgage rate reported the same day (3.55%) and is very close to the average spread we see between the two numbers (average spread is 1.7).

Where Will the Treasury Yield Head in the Future?

With this information in mind, a 10-year treasury-yield forecast would be a good indicator of where mortgage rates may be headed. The Wall Street Journal just surveyed a panel of over 75 academic, business, and financial economists asking them to forecast the treasury yield over the next few years. The consensus was that experts project the treasury yield will climb to 2.84% by the end of 2024. Based on the 50-year history of following this yield, that would likely put mortgage rates at about 4.5% in three years.

While the correlation between the 30-year fixed mortgage rate and the 10-year treasury yield is clear in the data shown above for the past 50 years, it shouldn’t be used as an exact indicator. They’re both hard to forecast. Yet understanding the relationship can help you get an idea of where rates may be going. It appears, based on the information we have now, that mortgage rates will continue to rise over the next few years. If that’s the case, your best bet may be to purchase a home sooner rather than later, if you’re able. 

Bottom Line

Forecasting mortgage rates is difficult. However, if you’re either a first-time homebuyer or a current homeowner thinking of moving into a home that better fits your changing needs, understanding what’s happening with the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage rates can help you make an informed decision on the timing of your purchase.

If you are NOT in your forever home and would like to discover the equity you’ve earned in recent years, please allow me to do a comprehensive market analysis. I will share what you could sell your home for AND what purchase price you may qualify for in your new home 🙂

Sincerely,
Shawna

JANUARY 2022 NEWSLETTER

As the Holiday season comes to an end and the new year is upon us, I’m reminded (with all matters personally and professionally) it’s not the destination, but it’s the journey.

Wishing for you that each day of your journey in the coming year is filled with positivity, success, laughter, and blessings.  

Happy New Year!

Shawna O’Brien
shawna.obrien@talktotucker.com
317-506-0039
F.C. Tucker Geist Fishers

DECEMBER 2021 NEWSLETTER

Happy December! I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and you are looking forward to Christmas and the New Year. As the year comes to a close and we look forward to 2022, many are asking, “What is going to happen next year?” with our housing market.

SELLERS:

Like most industries, residential real estate typically has a seasonality to it. Historically, the number of buyers and listings for sale significantly increase in the spring and remains strong throughout the summer. Instead of waiting for the normal spring buying market, new research indicates that homeowners thinking about selling are about to put their homes on the market this winter.

Speaking to the release of a report on this recent research, George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research for realtor.com, said: “The pandemic has delayed plans for many Americans, and homeowners looking to move on to the next state of life are no exception. Recent survey data suggests the majority of prospective sellers are actively preparing to enter the market this winter”.

Here are some highlights of the report:

Of homeowners planning to enter the market in the next year:

  • 65% – Have just listed (19%) or plan to list this winter
  • 93% – Have already taken steps toward listing their home, including working with an agent (28%)
  • 36% – Have researched the value of their home and others in their neighborhood
  • 36% – Have started making repairs or decluttering

The report also discusses the reasons sellers want to move:

  • 33% – Have realized they want different home features
  • 37% – Say their home no longer meets their family’s needs
  • 32% – Want to move closer to friends and family
  • 23% – Are looking for a home office

Data shows buyer demand remains unusually strong going into this winter. Research indicates the supply of inventory is about to increase. This could be a winter real estate market like never before.

BUYERS:

Rates have gone up slightly BUT they are still super low. When you amortize the payment over a 30 year term the increased rate may only equal a $50-$100 increase in the mortgage payment (depending on the home value) compared to this past summer.

So, PLEASE, encourage those you know who have spoken about buying a home this season to pursue their dream and contact me for guidance. I’d LOVE to help them! I can assist with working numbers and payment options as well as referring them to trusted lenders I’ve worked with in the past.

PRICING & APPRECIATION:

The recent surge in prices is the result of heavy buyer demand and a shortage of homes available for sale. Most experts believe that as more housing inventory comes to market (both new construction and existing homes), the supply and demand for housing will come more into balance. That balance will bring a lower rate of appreciation in 2022. Here’s a look at home price forecasts from six major entities, and they all project future appreciation:

  1. Fannie Mae
  2. Freddie Mac
  3. Mortgage Bankers Association
  4. Home Price Expectation Survey
  5. Zelman & Associates
  6. National Association of Realtors

While the projected rate of appreciation varies among the experts, due to things like supply chain challenges, virus variants, and more, it’s clear that home values will continue to appreciate next year.

Still have questions?? Although I prefer warmer weather, in the winter months I DO enjoy getting cozy in a big sweater, grabbing a hot coffee and talking with friends. So, let’s meet up for a coffee (or tea) and talk!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year with Love!

Shawna

NOVEMBER 2021 NEWSLETTER

I hope you had a wonderful weekend and a Happy Halloween. For the first time we didn’t walk around and trick or treat with Jack and Kelly. They ran off with friends and Pat and I sat around a bonfire in our driveway, handing out candy to our neighborhood friends & trick or treaters. That’s the way it goes with teenagers :-).

This month I’d like to share the below article because it’s the question I’m asked the most:

What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices?

What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices? | MyKCM

If you’re looking to buy or sell a house, chances are you’ve heard talk about today’s rising home prices. And while this increase in home values is great news for sellers, you may be wondering what the future holds. Will prices continue to rise with time, or should you expect them to fall?

To answer that question, let’s first understand a few terms you may be hearing right now.

It’s important to note home prices have increased, or appreciated, for 114 straight months. To find out if that trend may continue, look to the experts. Pulsenomics surveyed over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts asking for their five-year projections. In terms of what lies ahead, experts say the market may see some slight deceleration, but not depreciation.

Here’s the forecast for the next few years:As the graph above shows, prices are expected to continue to rise, just not at the same pace we’ve seen over the last year. Over 100 experts agree, there is no expectation for price depreciation. As the arrows indicate, each number is an increase, which means prices will rise each year.

Bill McBride, author of the blog Calculated Risk, also expects deceleration, but not depreciation: “My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.7% is probably close to a peak, and that year-over-year price increases will slow later this year.”

Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates agrees, saying: “. . . home price appreciation is on the cusp of flipping to a decelerating trend.”

recent article from realtor.com indicates you should expect: “. . . annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, . . .”

What Does This Deceleration Mean for You?

What experts are projecting for the years ahead is more in line with the historical norm for appreciation. According to data from Black Knight, the average annual appreciation from 1995-2020 is 4.1%. As you can see from the chart above, the expert forecasts are closer to that pace, which means you should see appreciation at a level that’s aligned with a more normal year.

Experts expect price deceleration, not price depreciation over the coming years. If you’re a buyer, don’t expect a sudden or drastic drop in home prices – experts say it won’t happen. Instead, think about your homeownership goals and consider purchasing a home before prices rise further. If you’re a seller, the continued home price appreciation is good news for the value of your house.

Let’s connect to talk through what’s happening in the housing market today, where things are headed, and what it means for you. 

All my best,
Shawna

OCTOBER 2021 NEWSLETTER

Happy Fall!

Who has already purchased a pumpkin spiced latte? 😉
(Believe it or not, not me).

Whether you like all things pumpkin or not, I hope you are enjoying the season! My September born children both tell me that this is their favorite time of year, and they promise it’s the change of season, not because they get presents. 🙂

Do you know someone still renting? Rent continues to go up each year but when one purchases a home and locks in a rate for 30 years, the payment stays the same. The U.S. Median rental price has climbed nearly 10% year over year to $1,607. That is 15.5% higher than the monthly payments for a starter home, the lower-priced tier of homes for sale in a market. Yes there has been a recent jump in home prices but the low mortgage rates help offset that jump.

Here’s another visual to share with someone who is currently paying rent and wondering “How much do I need to budget each month to afford this house?” 

The charts show the principle and interest payment dependent on the interest rate and loan amount. 

Of course if you’re considering selling, we see the second highest activity behind the busy spring months. Pat and I coincidentally have purchased all three of the homes we’ve lived in together in the last 20 years in September, December, and November respectively. 

I’m always here to help and answer any questions you have about the market. Give me a call, send an email or text or better yet, let me buy you a coffee (or pumpkin spice latte) and let’s catch up!

SEPTEMBER 2021 NEWSLETTER

If you’re trying to decide whether or not to sell your house, this is the time to think seriously about making a move. Fannie Mae’s recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reveals the number of respondents who say it’s a good time to sell is higher now than it was over the past few summers (see graph below). Today, the majority of consumers, 75 percent, say it’s a good time to sell a house.

The higher good time to sell sentiment has to do with today’s market conditions, specifically low housing supply and high buyer demand. In the simplest terms, we don’t have enough houses available for sale to meet buyer demand. 

But while housing supply is undeniably low, the right side of the graph shows how the inventory situation is improving little by little each month as more sellers list their homes for sale, so now IS the time.

Why 2021 Is Still the Year To Sell Your House | MyKCM

Why does an appraisal gap happen?

With the heightened buyer demand, purchasers are often willing to pay over asking to secure the home of their dreams. If you’ve ever toured a house you’ve fallen in love with, you understand. Once you start to picture yourself and your furniture in the rooms, you want to do everything you can to land the property, including putting in a high offer to try to beat out other would-be buyers.

Home prices are appreciating at near-historic rates, and that’s creating some challenges when it comes to home appraisals.

When the appraiser comes in, they look at things a bit more objectively. Their job is to assess the inherent value of the home, so they’re going to study the facts. Dustin Harris, Appraiser Coach, drives this point home:  “It’s important for everyone to understand that the appraiser’s job in the end is to remain that unbiased third party, to truly tell the client what that home is worth in the current market, regardless of what decisions have been made on the price side of things.”

While homebuyers may be willing to pay more, appraisers are there to assess the market value of the home. Their goal is to make sure the lender isn’t loaning more money than the home is worth. It’s objective, rather than emotional. In a highly competitive market like today’s, having a discrepancy between the two numbers isn’t unusual. Here’s a look at the increasing rate of appraisal gaps, according to data from CoreLogic (see graph below):

What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know About the Appraisal Gap | MyKCM

The best thing you can do is understand appraisal gaps may impact your transaction if you’re buying or selling. If you do encounter an appraisal below your contract price, lean on ME to help you understand your options and handle any additional negotiations that need to happen.

On a personal note, September is ACTION PACKED for my family.  We are back to school and in the thick of fall sports which I LOVE!  Both Jack and Kelly have birthdays in September and Pat and I celebrate 19 years of marriage on September 7th. 

You know me well and you know I put priority on spending time with my family with every opportunity BUT I’m never too busy for your referrals.  This year has been a wonderful year of referrals and I’m honored. 

I appreciate you – Keep ’em coming!

Happy Fall (soon) 🙂

Shawna

AUGUST 2021 NEWSLETTER

Many of my friends, family, neighbors and clients, if they didn’t choose to move within the past 18 months, have chosen to invest in home improvements. Many times I’m asked if a particular improvement will have a solid rate of return when/if they sell in the near future. 

Going into the fall months, I thought you would benefit from the below information. And please pass it on to a friend!

This is a general guideline. Neighborhoods and markets can vary in regard to the value of a particular improvement so if you’re considering any of the below and wonder if you’ll recoup your costs when you sell sometime in the future, give me a call!

I’m also NEVER too busy for your referrals so, please consider mentioning me during conversations about home buying, selling or building. I’m honored and grateful for your support!