DECEMBER 2021 NEWSLETTER

Happy December! I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving and you are looking forward to Christmas and the New Year. As the year comes to a close and we look forward to 2022, many are asking, “What is going to happen next year?” with our housing market.

SELLERS:

Like most industries, residential real estate typically has a seasonality to it. Historically, the number of buyers and listings for sale significantly increase in the spring and remains strong throughout the summer. Instead of waiting for the normal spring buying market, new research indicates that homeowners thinking about selling are about to put their homes on the market this winter.

Speaking to the release of a report on this recent research, George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research for realtor.com, said: “The pandemic has delayed plans for many Americans, and homeowners looking to move on to the next state of life are no exception. Recent survey data suggests the majority of prospective sellers are actively preparing to enter the market this winter”.

Here are some highlights of the report:

Of homeowners planning to enter the market in the next year:

  • 65% – Have just listed (19%) or plan to list this winter
  • 93% – Have already taken steps toward listing their home, including working with an agent (28%)
  • 36% – Have researched the value of their home and others in their neighborhood
  • 36% – Have started making repairs or decluttering

The report also discusses the reasons sellers want to move:

  • 33% – Have realized they want different home features
  • 37% – Say their home no longer meets their family’s needs
  • 32% – Want to move closer to friends and family
  • 23% – Are looking for a home office

Data shows buyer demand remains unusually strong going into this winter. Research indicates the supply of inventory is about to increase. This could be a winter real estate market like never before.

BUYERS:

Rates have gone up slightly BUT they are still super low. When you amortize the payment over a 30 year term the increased rate may only equal a $50-$100 increase in the mortgage payment (depending on the home value) compared to this past summer.

So, PLEASE, encourage those you know who have spoken about buying a home this season to pursue their dream and contact me for guidance. I’d LOVE to help them! I can assist with working numbers and payment options as well as referring them to trusted lenders I’ve worked with in the past.

PRICING & APPRECIATION:

The recent surge in prices is the result of heavy buyer demand and a shortage of homes available for sale. Most experts believe that as more housing inventory comes to market (both new construction and existing homes), the supply and demand for housing will come more into balance. That balance will bring a lower rate of appreciation in 2022. Here’s a look at home price forecasts from six major entities, and they all project future appreciation:

  1. Fannie Mae
  2. Freddie Mac
  3. Mortgage Bankers Association
  4. Home Price Expectation Survey
  5. Zelman & Associates
  6. National Association of Realtors

While the projected rate of appreciation varies among the experts, due to things like supply chain challenges, virus variants, and more, it’s clear that home values will continue to appreciate next year.

Still have questions?? Although I prefer warmer weather, in the winter months I DO enjoy getting cozy in a big sweater, grabbing a hot coffee and talking with friends. So, let’s meet up for a coffee (or tea) and talk!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year with Love!

Shawna

NOVEMBER 2021 NEWSLETTER

I hope you had a wonderful weekend and a Happy Halloween. For the first time we didn’t walk around and trick or treat with Jack and Kelly. They ran off with friends and Pat and I sat around a bonfire in our driveway, handing out candy to our neighborhood friends & trick or treaters. That’s the way it goes with teenagers :-).

This month I’d like to share the below article because it’s the question I’m asked the most:

What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices?

What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices? | MyKCM

If you’re looking to buy or sell a house, chances are you’ve heard talk about today’s rising home prices. And while this increase in home values is great news for sellers, you may be wondering what the future holds. Will prices continue to rise with time, or should you expect them to fall?

To answer that question, let’s first understand a few terms you may be hearing right now.

It’s important to note home prices have increased, or appreciated, for 114 straight months. To find out if that trend may continue, look to the experts. Pulsenomics surveyed over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts asking for their five-year projections. In terms of what lies ahead, experts say the market may see some slight deceleration, but not depreciation.

Here’s the forecast for the next few years:As the graph above shows, prices are expected to continue to rise, just not at the same pace we’ve seen over the last year. Over 100 experts agree, there is no expectation for price depreciation. As the arrows indicate, each number is an increase, which means prices will rise each year.

Bill McBride, author of the blog Calculated Risk, also expects deceleration, but not depreciation: “My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.7% is probably close to a peak, and that year-over-year price increases will slow later this year.”

Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates agrees, saying: “. . . home price appreciation is on the cusp of flipping to a decelerating trend.”

recent article from realtor.com indicates you should expect: “. . . annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, . . .”

What Does This Deceleration Mean for You?

What experts are projecting for the years ahead is more in line with the historical norm for appreciation. According to data from Black Knight, the average annual appreciation from 1995-2020 is 4.1%. As you can see from the chart above, the expert forecasts are closer to that pace, which means you should see appreciation at a level that’s aligned with a more normal year.

Experts expect price deceleration, not price depreciation over the coming years. If you’re a buyer, don’t expect a sudden or drastic drop in home prices – experts say it won’t happen. Instead, think about your homeownership goals and consider purchasing a home before prices rise further. If you’re a seller, the continued home price appreciation is good news for the value of your house.

Let’s connect to talk through what’s happening in the housing market today, where things are headed, and what it means for you. 

All my best,
Shawna

OCTOBER 2021 NEWSLETTER

Happy Fall!

Who has already purchased a pumpkin spiced latte? 😉
(Believe it or not, not me).

Whether you like all things pumpkin or not, I hope you are enjoying the season! My September born children both tell me that this is their favorite time of year, and they promise it’s the change of season, not because they get presents. 🙂

Do you know someone still renting? Rent continues to go up each year but when one purchases a home and locks in a rate for 30 years, the payment stays the same. The U.S. Median rental price has climbed nearly 10% year over year to $1,607. That is 15.5% higher than the monthly payments for a starter home, the lower-priced tier of homes for sale in a market. Yes there has been a recent jump in home prices but the low mortgage rates help offset that jump.

Here’s another visual to share with someone who is currently paying rent and wondering “How much do I need to budget each month to afford this house?” 

The charts show the principle and interest payment dependent on the interest rate and loan amount. 

Of course if you’re considering selling, we see the second highest activity behind the busy spring months. Pat and I coincidentally have purchased all three of the homes we’ve lived in together in the last 20 years in September, December, and November respectively. 

I’m always here to help and answer any questions you have about the market. Give me a call, send an email or text or better yet, let me buy you a coffee (or pumpkin spice latte) and let’s catch up!

SEPTEMBER 2021 NEWSLETTER

If you’re trying to decide whether or not to sell your house, this is the time to think seriously about making a move. Fannie Mae’s recent Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) reveals the number of respondents who say it’s a good time to sell is higher now than it was over the past few summers (see graph below). Today, the majority of consumers, 75 percent, say it’s a good time to sell a house.

The higher good time to sell sentiment has to do with today’s market conditions, specifically low housing supply and high buyer demand. In the simplest terms, we don’t have enough houses available for sale to meet buyer demand. 

But while housing supply is undeniably low, the right side of the graph shows how the inventory situation is improving little by little each month as more sellers list their homes for sale, so now IS the time.

Why 2021 Is Still the Year To Sell Your House | MyKCM

Why does an appraisal gap happen?

With the heightened buyer demand, purchasers are often willing to pay over asking to secure the home of their dreams. If you’ve ever toured a house you’ve fallen in love with, you understand. Once you start to picture yourself and your furniture in the rooms, you want to do everything you can to land the property, including putting in a high offer to try to beat out other would-be buyers.

Home prices are appreciating at near-historic rates, and that’s creating some challenges when it comes to home appraisals.

When the appraiser comes in, they look at things a bit more objectively. Their job is to assess the inherent value of the home, so they’re going to study the facts. Dustin Harris, Appraiser Coach, drives this point home:  “It’s important for everyone to understand that the appraiser’s job in the end is to remain that unbiased third party, to truly tell the client what that home is worth in the current market, regardless of what decisions have been made on the price side of things.”

While homebuyers may be willing to pay more, appraisers are there to assess the market value of the home. Their goal is to make sure the lender isn’t loaning more money than the home is worth. It’s objective, rather than emotional. In a highly competitive market like today’s, having a discrepancy between the two numbers isn’t unusual. Here’s a look at the increasing rate of appraisal gaps, according to data from CoreLogic (see graph below):

What Buyers and Sellers Need To Know About the Appraisal Gap | MyKCM

The best thing you can do is understand appraisal gaps may impact your transaction if you’re buying or selling. If you do encounter an appraisal below your contract price, lean on ME to help you understand your options and handle any additional negotiations that need to happen.

On a personal note, September is ACTION PACKED for my family.  We are back to school and in the thick of fall sports which I LOVE!  Both Jack and Kelly have birthdays in September and Pat and I celebrate 19 years of marriage on September 7th. 

You know me well and you know I put priority on spending time with my family with every opportunity BUT I’m never too busy for your referrals.  This year has been a wonderful year of referrals and I’m honored. 

I appreciate you – Keep ’em coming!

Happy Fall (soon) 🙂

Shawna

AUGUST 2021 NEWSLETTER

Many of my friends, family, neighbors and clients, if they didn’t choose to move within the past 18 months, have chosen to invest in home improvements. Many times I’m asked if a particular improvement will have a solid rate of return when/if they sell in the near future. 

Going into the fall months, I thought you would benefit from the below information. And please pass it on to a friend!

This is a general guideline. Neighborhoods and markets can vary in regard to the value of a particular improvement so if you’re considering any of the below and wonder if you’ll recoup your costs when you sell sometime in the future, give me a call!

I’m also NEVER too busy for your referrals so, please consider mentioning me during conversations about home buying, selling or building. I’m honored and grateful for your support!

JULY 2021 NEWSLETTER

Happy 4th of July! 

I hope this finds you well as we approach the holiday weekend. 

The question of whether the real estate market is a bubble ready to pop seems to be dominating a lot of conversations – and everyone has an opinion. Yet, when it comes down to it, the opinions that carry the most weight are the ones based on experience and expertise.

Here are four expert opinions from professionals and organizations that have devoted their careers to giving great advice to the housing industry.

The Joint Center for Housing Studies in their The State of the Nation’s Housing 2021 report:

… conditions today are quite different than in the early 2000s, particularly in terms of credit availability. The current climb in house prices instead reflects strong demand amid tight supply, helped along by record-low interest rates.

Nathaniel Karp, Chief U.S. Economist at BBVA:

The housing market is in line with fundamentals as interest rates are attractive and incomes are high due to fiscal stimulus, making debt servicing relatively affordable and allowing buyers to qualify for larger mortgages. Underwriting standards are still strong, so there is little risk of a bubble developing.

Bill McBride of Calculated Risk:

It’s not clear at all to me that things are going to slow down significantly in the near future. In 2005, I had a strong sense that the hot market would turn and that, when it turned, things would get very ugly. Today, I don’t have that sense at all, because all of the fundamentals are there. Demand will be high for a while, because Millennials need houses. Prices will keep rising for a while, because inventory is so low.

Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American:

Looking back at the bubble years, house prices exceeded house-buying power in 2006 nationally, but today house-buying power is nearly twice as high as the median sale price nationally…

Many find it hard to believe, but housing is actually undervalued in most markets and the gap between house-buying power and sale prices indicates there’s room for further house price growth in the months to come.

Bottom Line

All four strongly believe that we’re not in a bubble and won’t see crashing home values as we did in 2008. And they’re not alone – Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Merrill Lynch share the same opinion.

As always, if you or someone you know would like to discuss buying or selling in 2021 or 2022, I’m never too busy for your referrals!

Have a wonderful weekend and stay safe!

All my best,
Shawna

JUNE 2021 NEWSLETTER

Happy Summer! 

I hope this email finds you well and you are looking forward to the warm summer months ahead. We are planning some travel as a family later this month and a few small home projects here and there.

If I can help in any way with resources for you in terms of home improvement, please let me know. AND, equally important, please share with me professionals you’ve used on your home projects that you’ve had great experiences with so I can add them to my database. 🙂 I’m often asked for assistance/referrals and I love being that resource for you!

If you have time this weekend, stop by the Saint Simon Festival! Pat and I are involved volunteers of our parish. We both (and our children) have dedicated many hours setting up and preparing for the festival weekend and I’m also a sponsor. 

It’s a fabulous kick off to summer!  There is something for every age: live music, food, games, rides, fellowship.

Thank you to all who have supported my business as clients and as a referral source!  This role that I play in helping others buy and sell a home becomes more rewarding with each year and each transaction.

I really love helping you reach your goals and I’m NEVER too busy for your referrals!

With appreciation, 

Shawna

April 2021 Newsletter

WOW!  Residential real estate has always been a hot topic but lately it’s making headlines in the media, blog articles, and among personal conversations more then ever, it seems.

Sellers are discovering now is an excellent time to sell and benefit from the increased equity in their home, and there are a lot of qualified buyers looking to take advantage of the historically low interest rates. It’s a win win for all but we are experiencing inventory that is more than 50% below what it was this time last year. Many sellers are receiving an average of 4 “qualified” offers per listing. 

As your buyer’s agent I’m working faster and smarter to help you stand out from the competition and win the bid. As your listing agent, I’m helping you cut through the clutter and strategize on what is the best offer for you to accept to reach your financial goals. 

If you like data and are genuinely curious about today’s market for buyers and sellers, check out my latest blog post, Buyer and Seller Perks in Today’s Housing Market.

On a personal note, my family and I just had a wonderful spring break in Florida last week and on April 1st we celebrated my Husband Patrick’s birthday. We look forward to both Jack and Kelly’s track season at Cathedral and Saint Simon and we’re working on some small projects around the house. As a realtor, the projects never stop as I’m constantly inspired and motivated to make improvements ;-). 

Have a wonderful spring season and Happy Easter!

Shawna

MARCH 2021 NEWSLETTER

Spring is almost here!  Are you as excited as I am? It is my favorite season as the weather warms, foliage and flowers come back to life and our family can spend more time outdoors.

Spring is also the season many individuals and families start the process to list their home, buy a new home or build a new home and I am eager to help them meet their real estate goals.

I’m NEVER too busy for your referrals, by the way. Who do you know that plans to buy, sell or build in the next year or two? I’d be honored to receive an introduction and the opportunity to assist!

Some of my previous clients have written a testimony about their experience working with me and I invite you to read the reviews and share them with someone that is looking for a knowledgeable, dedicated, qualified real estate broker (me 😊) to assist them today, or in the future: http://bit.ly/3pYiDo9

Also, If YOU may be in the market in the next year or two, I’d like to remind you I can send you profiles of homes the instant they hit the market that:

  • have the features you want
  • are in neighborhoods you want to live in
  • are available at your price point

Wouldn’t that information be helpful? Even if you are “just looking”, it makes sense to look at homes that are a good fit for you.

Please call or email me anytime and I’ll set this up for you.

On a personal note, I’m coaching my daughter’s volleyball team and we enter the tournament on March 8th. Wish us luck! And, my son has started his track season at Cathedral with his first meet on March 13th!

Cheers, and let the Luck of the Irish be with you this month! 

Shawna